July Review

I've come up with a theory, I'm going to call it the "RedJoker Running Hot Measurement". It says that if you're winning money from blinds you are running hot, QED. So you can forget all your EV graphs, flop set percentages or any other stats, if you're winning money from the blinds you run good.

A few things to note compared to last month:

My 3bet% from every position has gone way up. The majority of that is caused by 3betting fish lightish in position (and sometimes OOP) both to isolate and get them to play more straight forward postflop. Most of the regs have wider opening ranges as well so 3betting IP (and sometimes OOP) becomes more profitable until they adjust.

My Button VPIP has gone up 3% and my SB VPIP has gone down 3%, that's a pretty good sign. Although my UTG VPIP went up slightly while my MP VPIP went down slightly, there's less hands here so it's more likely to be variance. It's probably not a huge problem anyway.

I'm still losing money in non showdown pots but it doesn't seem to be as heavy as last month, it's something I probably still need to work on.

Both my WtSD and W$SD have gone way up, probably just from running hot.

I got in 10,000 less hands which is a bad sign, I think getting in quality hands is more important then getting in a lot of hands. I'm not going to force myself to play more then I want to, just going to stick to playing when I feel like it.

My Flop CBet and Turn CBet have gone down by about 2.5%. My River CBet has gone up a lot but that's going to be a function of my flop and turn cbets, if I'm firing less on the flop and turn then I'm going to have stronger hands on average when I get to the river. I'm a little disappointed about my turn cbet%, I think I need to look out for more spots to double and triple barrel, I definitely feel that I don't triple barrel anywhere near enough. My increase in river cbet may mean that I'm value betting thiner which is a good sign.

My flop and turn AFs dropped while my river AF went up. I'm pleased about the direction of my river AF but not so much the turn. Same reasons as above. And in the case of the river it may mean that I'm finding more folds instead of paying off too much.

Time for some filters. I'll use the second HoldemManager article to go through my results.

Overview:



Steal attempt made:



Blind defended:



Heads up on Flop:

1744 hands, 239.39bb/100.

Heads up on Flop not the PFR:

594 hands, 77.01bb/100.

Multiway Flop:

1052 hands, 193.39bb/100.

Multiway Flop not PFR:

791 hands, 155.34bb/100.

Pocket Pairs:



Suited Connectors below KQs:



Suited Connectors below KQs, did coldcall = true:

47 hands, 1019.12bb/100.

Unsuited Connectors below KQo:



Unsuited Connectors below KQo, did coldcall = true:

24 hands, -28.79bb/100.

This seems to be mostly calling from the BB against a SB opener, I think I'll start adding these hands to my light 3betting range instead.